Hindsight Bias

With 1:15 left in the first half of today's Saints game, Drew Brees threw an uncharacteristically off-target pass to a wide open uncovered Pierre Thomas who, after falling to the ground to scoop up the errant pass, was able to get up and run the remaining 4 yards untouched into the end zone for a touchdown. The referee then went under the hood for several minutes to determine whether Thomas used the ground to assist his catch. At the time, I watched the instant replays and decided that it was unclear whether he used the ground to assist his catch. When the ball reveals itself, it is safely cradled above his hand. The commentators themselves could not decide whether there was sufficient justification to overturn the call on the field (catch and touchdown), and announced that whatever decision the referee announced would be as good as any. In the end, the referee reversed the call on the field: there was sufficient evidence to overturn it. Only after the decision did I view the replays and say to myself, “Yes, there! There you can see the ball move as it touches the ground.” What was unclear to me just seconds ago had now become crystal clear: the referee had clearly made the right decision based on the video evidence.

What I was engaging in is what is called hindsight bias. The end result inevitable because, well, it happened. In retrospect, the result that actually occurred seems to have been inevitable, even if it wasn't at the time. This is an important evolutionary trait that allows us to draw conclusions about cause and effect apply lessons from the past on our actions in the future. However, it also means that it is easy for spectators to criticize you in retrospect. Even when you look back on your own performance in retrospect, you may conclude that maybe you shouldn't have gone for it on 4th down, or maybe you shouldn't have called the play you did.

When a parent criticizes you after a loss, it may just be that he or she is engaging in hindsight bias.